Briefing materials.
Negotiating climate change a simulation – and a solution?
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(Held in Birmingham, 4 March 2022 and sponsored by the British International Studies Association)
(Prepared by Mark Webber, February 2022).
Introduction
This simulation involves negotiations aimed at: (Task 1) reducing global emissions of C0²; (Task 2) agreeing a climate transition fund; (Task 3) drafting a final declaration on the meeting outcome. All decisions require consensus.
21 negotiating countries or ‘parties’ are represented, divided into three categories (or ‘baskets’). Each participating university will represent one country from each basket.
My group is studying South Korea, if you could just help me go in with something for the day. Ill take what ever scenario looks the easiest.
| |
Basket 1 |
Basket 2 |
Basket 3 |
| Aston |
Russia |
Mexico |
South Africa |
| Birmingham |
China |
Brazil |
United Kingdom |
| De Montfort |
Japan |
India |
Turkey |
| Leicester |
Australia |
Thailand |
Iran |
| Liverpool John Moores |
Canada |
Indonesia |
Argentina |
| Staffordshire |
European Union |
South Korea |
Association of Small Island States |
| Warwick |
United States |
Saudi Arabia |
Egypt |
This document provides necessary data to inform the negotiations. The tasks themselves will be explained at a pre-briefing with the document author (Mark Webber) and again at the commencement of the simulation on March 4th.
Distribution of C0² emissions (2020) (‘Basket 1’ countries)
Country Emissions % global Emissions 2020 vs 2019 vs
(mt C0²yr) Emissions (t CO² per capita) 1990 (C0²emissions) 2015 (C0²emissions)
Australia 386 1.1 15.2 +39% +1%
Canada 542 1.5 14.4 +20% +0.9%
China 11,680 32.5 8.2 +382% +1.8%
EU 2,930 7.3 6.5 – 25% -1.3%
Japan 1,061 3.0 8.4 – 9% -2.2%
Russia 1,674 4.7 11.6 – 30% +0.7%
USA 4, 535 12.6 13.7 – 11% -0.7%
Total 25, 675 62.7 – – 23% –
World 36, 000 100.0 4.6 +68% +3.0%*
* (Estimate)
Source: European Commission, JRC for Science Policy Report, Fossil C02 Emissions for All World Countries, 2021
at: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/45c88a84-2d65-11ec-bd8e-01aa75ed71a1
Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Distribution of C0² emissions (2020) (‘Basket 2’ countries)
Country Emissions % global Emissions 2020 vs 2019 vs
(mt C0²yr) Emissions (t CO² per cap) 1990 (C0²emissions) 2015 (C0²emissions)
Brazil 452 1.3 2.1 +98% -2.3%
India 2,418 6.7 1.7 +303% +3.4%
Indonesia 568 1.6 2.1 +245% +5.9%
Mexico 407 1.1 3.0 +40% -0.2%
Saudi Arabia 589 1.6 16.7 +239% -0.8%
South Korea 621 1.7 12.1 +129% +0.8%
Thailand 255 1.0 3.7 +174% +2.0%*
Total 5,310 15.0
World 36, 000 100.0 4.6 +68% + 3.0%*
*(Estimate)
Source: European Commission, JRC for Science Policy Report, Fossil C02 Emissions for All World Countries, 2021
at: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/45c88a84-2d65-11ec-bd8e-01aa75ed71a1
Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Distribution of C0² emissions (2020) (‘Basket 3’ countries)
Country Emissions % global Emissions 2020 vs 2019 vs
(mt C0²yr) Emissions (t CO² per cap) 1990 (C0²emissions) 2015 (C0²emissions)
Argentina 176 >1.0 3.9 +63% -0.8%*
ASIS* 150 >1.0 4.0 +5%* -2.0%*
Egypt 269 >1.0 2.6 +196% +2%*
Iran 690 2.0 8.2 +237% +2.3%
South Africa 435 1.2 7.4 +39% +0.6%
Turkey 405 1.1 4.8 +169% +3.3%
United Kingdom 313 >1.0 4.6 -47% -10%*
Total 2,438 8.0*
World 36, 000 100.0 4.6 +68% +3.0*
*(Estimate)
Source: European Commission, JRC for Science Policy Report, Fossil C02 Emissions for All World Countries, 2021
at: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/45c88a84-2d65-11ec-bd8e-01aa75ed71a1
Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Economic performance (estimated 2021) (‘Basket 1’ countries)
Country Nominal Nominal Nominal
GDP ($bn) Rank GDP PPP ($m) GDP per capita ($m) GDP growth % (2021)
Australia 1,610 14 1, 415 62, 619 3.5
Canada 2, 015 10 1, 978 52, 791 5.7
China 16, 862 3 26, 656 11, 891 8.0
EU 17,078 2 15, 215 34, 843 5.0
Japan 5, 103 4 5, 585 40, 704 2.4
Russia 1, 647 12 4, 328 11, 273 4.7
USA 22, 939 1 22, 675 69, 375 6.0
Total 67, 254
World 84, 972 130,020,530 11,428 5.9
Sources: https://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)#cite_note-:0-1
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021
Economic performance (estimated 2021) (‘Basket 2’ countries)
Country Nominal Nominal Nominal
GDP ($bn) Rank GDP PPP ($m) GDP per capita ($m) GDP growth % (2021)
Brazil 1, 645 13 3, 328 7, 748 5.2
India 2, 946 7 10, 181 2, 116 9.5
Indonesia 1, 150 17 3, 507 4, 225 3.2
Mexico 1, 285 16 2, 613 9, 967 6.2
Saudi Arabia 842 20 1, 705 23, 762 2. 8
South Korea 1, 823 11 2, 436 35, 196 4.3
Thailand 546 27 1, 329 7, 809 1.0
Total 10, 237
World 84, 972 130,020,530 11,428 5.9
Sources: https://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)#cite_note-:0-1
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021
Economic performance (estimated 2021) (‘Basket 3’ countries)
Country Nominal Nominal Nominal
GDP ($bn) Rank GDP PPP ($m) GDP per capita ($m) GDP growth % (2021)
ASIS* >500 n/a 1, 000 >5,000 >1.0
Argentina 455 32 1, 055 9,929 7.5
Egypt 396 37 1, 346 3, 852 3.3
Iran 1, 081 18 1, 148 12, 725 2.5
South Africa 415 34 753 6, 861 5.0
Turkey 795 22 2, 749 9, 407 9.0
United Kingdom 3, 108 6 3, 174 46, 200 6.8
Total 6, 750
World 84, 972 130,020,530 11,428 5.9
Sources: https://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)#cite_note-:0-1
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021
Task 1. Stabilise global average temperature increase by reducing C0² emissions.
C0² and money card allocations (‘Basket 1’ countries)
Country
C0² trading units Transaction cost (money units) C0² to money trade Commitment
Australia 9 18 2.0
Canada 12 9 0.75
China 135 165 1.22
EU 36 24 0.66
Japan 24 18 0.75
Russia 21 36 1.7
USA 63 30 0.55
(Average) 42.8 42.8 1.1
Total 300 300
Scenario 1. Give up a total of 60 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2060).
Scenario 2. Give up a total of 90 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2050).
Scenario 3. Give up a total of 120 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2040).
Task 1. Stabilise global average temperature increase by reducing C0² emissions.
C0² and money card allocations (‘Basket 2’ countries)
Country
C0² trading units Transaction cost (money units) C0² to money trade Commitment
Brazil 16 20 1.25
India 90 106 1.17
Indonesia 16 16 1.0
Mexico 16 12 0.75
Saudi Arabia 22 28 1.27
South Korea 24 10 0.4
Thailand 16 8 0.5
(Average) 28.4 28.4 0.9
Total 200 200
Scenario 1. Give up a total of 40 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2060).
Scenario 2. Give up a total of 60 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2050).
Scenario 3. Give up a total of 80 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2040).
Task 1. Stabilise global average temperature increase by reducing C0² emissions.
C0² and money card allocations (‘Basket 3’ countries)
Country
C0² trading units Transaction cost (money units) C0² to money trade Commitment
Argentina 10 8 0.8
ASIS 9 5 0.55
Egypt 11 11 1.0
Iran 25 32 1.3
South Africa 16 18 1.1
Turkey 16 18 1.1
United Kingdom 13 8 0.6
(Average) 14.2 14.2 0.9
Total 100 100
Scenario 1. Give up a total of 20 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2060).
Scenario 2. Give up a total of 30 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2050).
Scenario 3. Give up a total of 40 C0² trading units by 2030 (in order to stabilise global average temperatures by 2040).
Task 2: agree to a climate transition fund
Country indicative $ contribution indicative $ contribution indicative $ contribution
% of nominal global GDP (2021) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Australia 1.8 2 4 6
Canada 2.1 2 4 6
China 17.8 22 44 66
EU 20.0 25 50 75
Iran 1.1 2 4 6
Japan 5.4 7 14 21
Saudi Arabia 1.0 2 4 6
South Korea 2.0 3 6 9
Russia 1.8 3 6 9
United Kingdom 3.3 4 8 12
USA 24.2 28 56 84
Total 80.5 100 200 300
Scenario 1. Raise $100bn per annum to fund net zero commitments in developing countries by 2060.
Scenario 2. Raise $200bn per annum to fund net zero commitments in developing countries by 2050.
Scenario 3. Raise $300bn per annum to fund net zero commitments in developing countries by 2040.
Task 3. Draft a final declaration
Draft a short declaration (no more than a page in length) – to be agreed by consensus – summarising the outcome of the simulation exercise.
The declaration will outline the following:
- The reasons why action on climate change is urgent.
- The types of climate action that are necessary (referring back to previous agreements e.g. the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement).
- The measures agreed in the simulation.
- Or, if measures, could not be agreed, the reasons why and what future action might be taken.
- Next steps (e.g. implementation of agreed actions, future meetings to agree further measures).
Sources to help you prepare for the simulation
Climate Action Tracker: https://climateactiontracker.org/
This provides country profiles of climate policies and assessments of how each country is contributing to global emission reductions.
Climate Watch does something similar: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/
Climate Analytics: https://climateanalytics.org/tools/
Lots of analysis and data on climate change, and the effects of policy actions (and inaction).
A comprehensive and up-to-date report of global greenhouse gas emissions published by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/45c88a84-2d65-11ec-bd8e-01aa75ed71a1
An overview of CO² emissions in recent years published by Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-co2-emissions-have-been-flat-for-a-decade-new-data-reveals
Registry of Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs): https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/Home.aspx
NDCs are commitments to action parties to the Paris Agreement have made aimed at reducing global temperature increases. These typically involve measures to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO²).
The official site of COP26: https://ukcop26.org/
COP refers to ‘Conference of the Parties’ to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). COP 26 is the 26th time the parties have met in full session. COP21 gave rise to the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
G20 Rome Declaration (October 2021): https://www.g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/G20-ROME-LEADERS-DECLARATION.pdf
