listed in problem are some probability estimates of the costs and benefits associate 640804

Listed in Problem are some probability estimates of the costs and benefits associated with two competing projects.

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS

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A

B

Probability

Amount

Probability

Amount

Project completion time

0.5

12 months

0.6

12 months

0.3

18 months

0.2

18 months

0.2

24 months

0.1

24 months

Expected useful life

0.6

4 years

0.5

4 years

0.25

5 years

0.3

5 years

0.15

6 years

0.2

6 years

One time costs

0.35

$200,000

0.2

$210,000

0.4

250,000

0.55

250,000

0.25

300,000

0.25

260,000

Recurring costs

0.1

$ 75,000

0.4

$ 85,000

0.55

95,000

0.4

100,000

0.35

105,000

0.2

110,000

Annual tangible benefits starting with
weighted average completion date

0.3

$220,000

0.25

$215,000

0.5

233,000

0.5

225,000

0.2

240,000

0.25

235,000

a. Compute the net present value of each alternative. Round the cost projections to the nearest month. Explain what happens to the answer if the probabilities of the recurring costs are incorrect and a more accurate estimate is as follows:

A

B

.10

$ 75,000

.4

$ 85,000

.55

95,000

.4

100,000

.35

105,000

.2

110,000

b. Repeat step (a) for the payback method.

c. Which method do you think provides the best source of information? Why?

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